Oil Climbs After OPEC+ Halts Planned Q1 Production Increases

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after OPEC+ elected to defer planned output increases for the first quarter of next year, easing concerns about an imminent supply glut. Brent crude futures gained $0.47, or 0.73%, to $65.24 a barrel by 23:36 GMT, following a modest $0.07 rise on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $0.45, or 0.74%, to $61.43 a barrel after settling up $0.41 in the previous session.

The producer group said it would lift production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, matching the increases scheduled for October and November. Beyond December, the eight producers cited seasonality and agreed to pause further increments in January, February and March 2026. RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft said the decision reflects prudence given lingering uncertainty over first-quarter supply and the prospect of weaker demand.

Geopolitical developments remain a potential wild card for supply, Croft added, noting the implications of recent U.S. sanctions on Russian firms such as Rosneft and Lukoil and continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. A Ukrainian drone strike on Sunday hit Tuapse port, one of Russia’s principal Black Sea oil hubs, reportedly causing a fire and damaging at least one vessel.

Markets entered October under pressure, with Brent and WTI declining more than 2% for a third consecutive month and hitting five-month lows on Oct. 20 amid oversupply fears and macroeconomic headwinds tied to U.S. tariffs. Analyst forecasts for oil prices remain broadly unchanged, according to a Reuters poll, as elevated OPEC+ output and soft demand counterbalance supply risks; estimates of a market surplus ranged from about 0.19 million to 3 million barrels per day.

U.S. production continues to climb: the Energy Information Administration reported a rise of 86,000 barrels per day in August to a record 13.8 million bpd. Separately, President Donald Trump denied reports that he was considering strikes inside Venezuela amid speculation Washington might expand operations linked to drug-trafficking enforcement.