Financial Report Outlook | iPhone 17 hot sales + steady expansion of service business Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) Q4 performance is expected to grow steadily

Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) will announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for the 2025 financial year ending in September on October 30, Eastern Time. The market currently expects Apple Inc.'s Q4 revenue to be $101.7 billion, with earnings per share of $1.76. The company's Q3 revenue was $94 billion, with earnings per share of $1.57. If the Q4 results meet market expectations, it will reflect the company's strong growth compared to the previous quarter. Strong demand for the iPhone 17 drives optimistic expectations Despite ongoing trade uncertainties and competitive pressures in the Chinese market, analysts are increasingly optimistic about Apple Inc.'s performance, leading to a boost in investor confidence. Positive market sentiment has pushed Apple Inc.'s stock price to an all-time high last week. This upward trend has brought the iPhone manufacturer closer to becoming the third company globally to surpass a $4 trillion market value, with strong demand signals for the newly launched iPhone 17 being a key factor. A report from Counterpoint research shows that in the first 10 days of its release in China and the U.S., iPhone 17 sales were 14% higher than the previous year's iPhone 16 series. Analysts point out that this momentum reflects strong demand for high-end models, allowing Apple Inc. to maintain profitability even in a sluggish overall smartphone market. Evercore ISI believes that Apple Inc. "is likely to exceed current market consensus for the September quarter and may provide optimistic guidance for the December quarter." The firm states that their "positive view is based on multiple iPhone-related data points, indicating that this may not just be a regular iPhone replacement cycle," highlighting that the delivery wait time for the base model iPhone 17 has exceeded levels from the same period last year. Evercore expects Apple Inc.'s Q4 revenue to grow by 8.1% sequentially. However, the firm believes there is room for upside surprises, citing strong revenue growth in the App Storeestimated to grow by about 12% sequentiallyand the resolution of legal and regulatory obstacles that previously impacted Apple Inc.'s services business. Continued expansion of the services business Apple Inc.'s expanding services business remains a key driver of market optimism. Services such as iCloud, Apple Music, and the App Store now account for about one-third of the company's total revenue, with a gross profit margin of approximately 75%, offsetting the decline in hardware profit margins. The steady growth of the services business has become a strategic buffer for Apple Inc. against resistance in the hardware market. Evercore ISI analysts suggest that Apple Inc. may indicate that the double-digit growth trend in services will continue, especially with various adverse factors impacting this sector (such as the U.S. Justice Department's case against Alphabet Inc. Class C, and the lawsuit between Apple Inc. and Epic Games) being resolved. Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes mentions that Apple Inc. currently has the "best long-term product roadmap in years." He highlights upcoming products like "Siri 2.0" and the next generation of home devices including the Artificial Intelligence Central and the Home Siasun Robot & Automationas potential new revenue sources. Analysts have differing views on the short-term outlook While the overall tone is optimistic, analysts' views are not completely aligned. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. remains cautious, expecting Apple Inc.'s Q4 revenue and operating profits to be about 4% lower than Wall Street's consensus. The firm points out that flat sales of products other than the iPhone and concerns over new tariffs are major risks. The firm has lowered Apple Inc.'s target price from $205.16 to $203.07, warning that the company's high dependence on China's assembly stage may lead to noticeable margin pressure from tariffs. However, other institutions are still confident. Evercore ISI restates its "outperform the market" rating for Apple Inc., with a target price of $290. Loop Capital has upgraded its rating on Apple Inc. from "hold" to "buy," citing stronger-than-expected iPhone demand. Additionally, Evercore ISI states that Apple Inc. may provide performance guidance above market expectations. Ben Reitzes predicts that products like the AI home central hub, the Home Siasun Robot & Automation, along with continued iPhone upgrades, will enable Apple Inc.'s earnings per share potential to reach $10 "faster than expected." Solid fundamentals overshadow short-term concerns Despite uncertainties over tariffs and competitive pressures in the Chinese market, analysts generally believe that Apple Inc.'s high-profit services business combined with high-end hardware provide a unique resilience to fluctuations. Stable cash flow, rigorous cost management, and a growing ecosystem of recurring revenue are seen as key advantages for Apple Inc. in an unbalanced global market environment. With early data indicating another successful sales cycle for the iPhone and new products on the horizon, Apple Inc. seems poised to continue leading in the tech industry, provided that trade tensions and production costs remain manageable. As Apple Inc. prepares to announce its earnings on October 30, Wall Street's focus will be on whether the company can sustain its growth momentum into the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, and whether the latest performance will prove that this global tech giant is still moving forward amidst uncertainty.