Provide a target price of $100! NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) "Only short" - this is not the first time I have seen a bubble.

In the fervent pursuit of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) on Wall Street, an analyst is going against the tide. Among the 80 analysts covering NVIDIA Corporation, Seaport Global Securities analyst Jay Goldberg is the only one giving a "sell" rating with a target price of $100. "I'm skeptical of all the hype around AI," Goldberg told Bloomberg in an interview, "This is not the first time I've seen a bubble." He compared the current situation to the dot-com bubble around 2000 and warned that once the massive spending supporting high valuations slows, the market dynamics could quickly reverse. This stance contrasts sharply with the market's general optimism, with the average target price of Wall Street analysts currently around $220, indicating an 18% upside potential. History repeating itself? Pointing to the dot-com bubble In Goldberg's view, the astonishing growth of NVIDIA Corporation currently relies heavily on the massive capital expenditure of a few tech giants. Microsoft Corporation, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Inc., Meta, Oracle Corporation, and OpenAI these six companies are fiercely competing to build AI infrastructure, creating demand that has propelled NVIDIA Corporation to a market capitalization of up to $4.5 trillion. By 2025, these five listed companies are expected to have capital expenditures approaching $400 billion, with OpenAI also pledging to invest over $1 trillion. However, Goldberg warns investors to consider how limited the actual returns have been so far from these massive investments. He believes that this pattern is very similar to the telecommunications infrastructure development during the dot-com bubble period, when stocks like Cisco Systems, Inc. soared on the anticipation of internet traffic but suffered heavy losses when the expectations were not immediately met. Over twenty years later, Cisco Systems, Inc. stock has still not returned to its 2000 highs. Goldberg cautioned: The pattern we are seeing now is very similar to the feeling of that time. For largely psychological reasons, we will build all these AI facilities. At some point, spending will stop, and then the whole system will collapse, and we will witness a reset. Power, leverage, and limited upside potential In addition to historical comparisons, Goldberg also stated that since the market view is that NVIDIA Corporation's AI chips are already selling well, the question arises: where does the further upside in stock price come from? "There are not many drivers for an upward movement." Goldberg also questioned the sources of incremental power for all the new data centers being built. Moreover, leverage around data center development is accumulating: When you look into all the destinations of these GPUs, you get into the details of "neo-clouds" and all the electricity and real estate deals happening. It's easy to see that if some insignificant company collapses, it could trigger a chain reaction throughout the supply chain. It is worth noting that Goldberg's "sell" rating is not a recommendation to short the stock. He explicitly stated that he admires NVIDIA Corporation and its CEO Jensen Huang's leadership. To him, "sell" means he expects the stock to underperform peers like Broadcom Inc., Qualcomm, and AMD. Wall Street's concerns about the AI bubble are growing While Jay Goldberg is the only analyst giving a "sell" rating, his concerns about the AI bubble are not unique on Wall Street. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. CEO David Solomon recently compared the current AI frenzy to the fervor of the dot-com bubble period. According to the latest global fund manager survey by Bank of America Corp, the percentage of respondents who believe AI stocks are in a bubble reached a historical high. Even Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, gave an affirmative answer when asked about the existence of an AI bubble. These voices provide some degree of support for Goldberg's contrarian thinking. When discussing his bearish rating, Goldberg also said: I haven't heard anyone refute my arguments. Some say I'm too early... but no one says I'm crazy. I think we all see signs of excessive prosperity in the AI field, although NVIDIA Corporation is a good company, it is not immortal. Overwhelming optimism: "We are still in the early stages" Despite Goldberg's bubble warning, the mainstream view on Wall Street remains firmly bullish. Of the 80 analysts covering NVIDIA Corporation, 73 have given the equivalent of a "buy" rating, while 6 hold a "hold" view. Jim Awad, Senior Managing Director at Clearstead Advisors, said: AI is a multi-year generational cycle, and we are still in the early stages, not even in the middle stage. NVIDIA Corporation is an important player in this and is driving the economy and the stock market." The firm holds NVIDIA Corporation stock. Moon Surana, Portfolio Manager at Harding Loevner LP, expressed a similar view, believing that it is still early in the investment stage, There are no signs of excess capacity yet, and no GPUs are sitting idle. The most bullish analyst in the market is Frank Lee of HSBC, who recently upgraded NVIDIA Corporation to a "buy" rating with a target price of $320, citing the demand for AI accelerators surpassing that of the largest current customers. This article is from "Wall Street View", authored by Xu Chao; GMTEight Editor: Liu Jiayin.