CICC: Maintains TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780) at outperform rating with a target price of HKD 28.

Zhongjin Securities has released a research report stating that it basically maintains the revenue and profit forecast for TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780) for 2025 and 2026. The firm maintains an outperform industry rating and a target price of HK$28 (corresponding to 18x/15x 2025e and 2026e non-IFRS P/E ratios), with an upside potential of 28%. The company is currently trading at 14x/12x 2025e/2026e non-IFRS P/E ratios. Key points from Zhongjin Securities are as follows: - Forecasting a 14% year-on-year growth in core OTA revenue for 3Q 2025. - Zhongjin Securities expects group revenue to increase by 9% to RMB 5.45 billion in 3Q 2025; of which, core OTA revenue is expected to increase by 14% to RMB 4.59 billion, with an expected non-IFRS net profit of RMB 1.02 billion for 3Q 2025. The firm maintains the forecast of a 14% year-on-year growth in core OTA revenue for 3Q 2025, with growth in accommodation, transportation, and other revenue meeting expectations: 1) Hotels: Zhongjin Securities expects a 10-15% year-on-year increase in room nights in 3Q 2025, with a steady increase in the proportion of three-star hotel room nights, a slight single-digit increase in platform ADR year-on-year, and a flat commission rate year-on-year, leading to an expected 14% increase in accommodation revenue. 2) Transportation: The Civil Aviation Administration revealed a 3% year-on-year increase in domestic flights in 3Q 2025, with the firm expecting the company's domestic air ticket sales volume to increase in line with the overall market; benefitting from rapid growth in international air ticket sales and a year-on-year increase in the realization rate of transportation business, the firm expects a 9% increase in transportation revenue for the company. 3) Other: Driven by growth in hotel management and PMS revenue, the firm expects a 34% year-on-year increase in other revenue. - Basically maintaining the revenue and profit guidance for 2025. - In the core OTA business, domestic growth in accommodation and transportation business remains robust, with overseas segments contributing incremental growth; in other businesses, the hotel management business maintains high growth, and the firm expects to complete the acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management in 4Q, maintaining the expectation of a 15% year-on-year increase in core OTA revenue for 2025. The company continues to efficiently control expenses, and actively improve the monetization of international business, with the firm maintaining the expectation of a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 3.3 billion for the company in 2025.