Huachuang Securities: Tanda's single ticket revenue in September has increased compared to July. The elasticity of future performance can be expected.

Listed company business volume: SF Express leads in year-on-year growth rate in September. 1) Year-on-year growth rate of business volume in September: SF Express (31.8%) > YTO Express (13.6%) > STO Express (9.5%) > Yunda Express (3.6%). 2) Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of business volume from January to September: SF Express (28.3%) > YTO Express (19.4%) > STO Express (17.1%) > Yunda Express (13.0%). Listed company express revenue: STO Express and YTO Express lead in growth rate in September. 1) Year-on-year growth rate of revenue in September: STO Express (14.9%) = YTO Express (14.9%) > SF Express (14.2%) > Yunda Express (4.1%). 2) Cumulative year-on-year growth rate of revenue from January to September: STO Express (14.8%) > YTO Express (13.5%) > SF Express (11.7%) > Yunda Express (6.6%). Single ticket revenue: The increase in the TOM system continues to improve. 1) Single ticket revenue in September: STO Express 2.12 RMB, year-on-year +5.0% (+0.10 RMB), month-on-month +2.9% (+0.06 RMB), in July +7.6% (+0.15 RMB); Yunda Express 2.02 RMB, year-on-year +0.5% (+0.01 RMB), month-on-month +5.2% (+0.10 RMB), in July +5.8% (+0.11 RMB); YTO Express 2.21 RMB, year-on-year +1.1% (+0.03 RMB), month-on-month +2.8% (+0.06 RMB), in July +6.3% (+0.13 RMB); SF Express 13.87 RMB, year-on-year -13.3% (-2.13 RMB), month-on-month +4.5% (+0.60 RMB), in July +2.4% (+0.32 RMB). 2) Cumulative single ticket revenue from January to September: STO Express 2.02 RMB, year-on-year -2.0% (-0.04 RMB); Yunda Express 1.94 RMB, year-on-year -5.7% (-0.12 RMB); YTO Express 2.18 RMB, year-on-year -4.9% (-0.11 RMB); SF Express 13.83 RMB, year-on-year -13.0% (-2.07 RMB). The three companies in the TOM system increased their single ticket revenue in September compared to July by: STO Express increased by 0.15 RMB, YTO Express increased by 0.13 RMB, and Yunda Express increased by 0.11 RMB. From the perspective of single ticket revenue from August to September, it verifies the industry's logic of price increase. With the arrival of the peak season in October, it is expected to perform further. Investment recommendations: 1. E-commerce express delivery: Continuously emphasize investment opportunities under the theme of "anti-inner loop" and enter the "revenue-performance elasticity" verification period. 1) Continuously recommend YTO Express and STO Express, which we have recently upgraded to "strong recommendation." YTO Express Group (600233.SH): The core indicators are approaching the industry leader, with the best quality in A-share e-commerce express delivery, and good performance elasticity under the "anti-inner loop" situation. STO Express Co.,Ltd. (002468.SH): Continuously bullish on the business elasticity of a turning point-type enterprise under the "anti-inner loop" situation. At the same time, pay attention to the company's planned integration of Daniao business, and the future empowerment by the shareholders is worth looking forward to. 2) Continue to recommend Jitu Express (01519): Q3 Southeast Asia shipment volume +79%, Southeast Asia's high prosperity investment + "anti-inner loop" will help stabilize profitability in the domestic market. 3) Recommend ZTO Express (02057), low valuation, once the price elasticity is activated, cost-effectiveness is high. 2. Continuously optimistic about investment opportunities in SF Express. 1) Activate business strategies, accelerate the growth of business volume, and push up revenue growth rate. The company has had the fastest growth rate in shipments from the beginning of the year. 2) In June, we published "Decoding SF Express (20): Looking at SF Express from the perspective of free cash flow: the excitement outside the income statement", shifting the focus from the income statement to the cash flow statement. Especially, we discussed whether the acceleration of business volume can be sustained. What kind of spark will be created by "driverless cars + cage cars + flexible urban capacity"? We believe that the company's free cash flow can be continuously optimized. After the price adjustment, it has investment cost-effectiveness. Risk warning: Economic downturn, significant slowdown in industry growth rate, significant expansion of price wars. Source of this article: WeChat public account "Huachuang Transportation", authors Wu Yifan, Wu Chenyue, GMTEight editor: Chen Qiuda.