Preview of US Stock Market | Dow futures turn higher, Wall Street still believes in the "long-term bull market narrative"

1. Before the opening of the US stock market on Friday, the futures of the three major indices of the US stock market were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures turned from a decline to a rise, up 0.18%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.24%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 1.48%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 1.05%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.05%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.66%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.21%, to $57.58 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, to $61.16 per barrel. Market News $5 trillion "credit powder keg" sounds alarm? President of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns that defaults may trigger a systemic crisis. John Lennon, President of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., pointed out that the total amount of borrowing in the high-yield bond, leverage loan, and private credit sectors has reached about $5 trillion, with private credit being the main driver of growth. Recently, the credit market has experienced three suspected fraud incidents, exacerbating concerns about potential systemic risks. Zion Bank and West Unity Bancorp, Inc. stated on Thursday that loans made to funds investing in bad commercial mortgage loans were defrauded, making themselves victims. Liquidity alert sounded! Bank of America Corp's reserves fell below $3 trillion again, and the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) may come to an end in the coming months. Bank of America Corp's reserve (a key consideration for the Fed to continue reducing its balance sheet) has once again fallen below $3 trillion. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that quantitative tightening (QT) may come to an end in the coming months. Bank reserves decreased by about $45.7 billion in the week ending October 15, to $2.99 trillion. The decrease almost offset the previous week's increase of $54.3 billion. This decrease in reserves was due to the U.S. Treasury increasing debt issuance to rebuild cash balances since the debt ceiling was raised in July. This operation will draw liquidity from other liabilities on the Fed's balance sheet, such as its overnight reverse repo tool and bank reserves. Profit is king, AI leads the way! The American stock earnings season has kicked off, and Wall Street is increasingly confident in the narrative of a "long-term bull market". While concerns about the unstable state of the global macroeconomy due to factors such as the U.S. government shutdown and the debt crisis in developed countries have intensified, and the dominance of massive investments in artificial intelligence may obscure underlying problems in the U.S. economy, Wall Street analysts are becoming more optimistic about the profit outlook for American companies. With the strong performance of the seven tech giants that dominate the S&P 500 index and leaders in the AI computing industry such as Broadcom Inc. and AMD, as well as continued earnings surprises this year, the bull market momentum in the American stock market may continue to be strong. The earnings reporting season for American stocks is crucial, and based on the latest general expectations from Wall Street and reported earnings, the "seven tech giants" with high weight in the S&P 500 index and leaders in the AI computing industry such as Broadcom Inc. and AMD are expected to show strong performance, driving the American stock market to continue hitting record highs. "Digital Gold" fades! Bitcoin plunges again, losing its "safe haven" halo, with its market value evaporating by billions of dollars in a week. After a week of sharp declines and a market value evaporating by billions of dollars, Bitcoin once again failed to live up to its promise as a safe haven asset. The cryptocurrency, known as the "digital gold" of the blockchain era, continued its decline in early Friday trading in London, falling below $105,000 at one point. The second-largest token, Ethereum, fell below $3,800, down more than 20% from its peak in August. At the same time, BNB tokens associated with Binance plummeted by 11% on Friday. Between 10th and 11th October, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange faced a record liquidation event due to technical glitches and price discrepancies. After the plunge, Binance has provided nearly $600 million in compensation to users and businesses. Individual Stock News Strong demand in North America + acquisition dividends, SLB (SLB.US) Q3 profits exceed expectations. Due to stable demand in the North American market and the business contributions from the recent acquisition of ChampionX, which effectively offset the weakness in oilfield business activities in other regions, the world's largest oilfield services company, SLB, announced better-than-expected profits for the third quarter on Friday. In the third quarter, international revenue, which accounts for about 80% of SLB's total revenue, decreased by 7% to $6.92 billion, while North American business revenue increased by 14% to $1.93 billion. For the quarter ending September 30, the company's adjusted earnings per share reached $0.69, surpassing the analysts' consensus of $0.66. The company's total revenue decreased by 2.5% to $8.928 billion from $9.159 billion in the same period last year but increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter. Excluding the impact of the acquisition, SLB's global revenue in the third quarter was actually down by 9% year-on-year. Strong demand for the new Platinum Card! American Express Company (AXP.US) third-quarter earnings exceed expectations. American Express Company reported third-quarter revenue of $18.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%; non-GAAP earnings per share were $4.14, exceeding market expectations. This high-end credit card company reported a billing business volume of $421 billion in the third quarter. Analysts had previously expected the company's total billing business volume to reach $415.2 billion. In a statement on Friday, the company's CEO, Steve Squeri, stated that the initial demand for the new Platinum Card exceeded the company's expectations, with the number of U.S. Platinum Card accounts doubling compared to before the update. The company also raised the lower end of its annual revenue guidance, now expecting revenue to grow by 9% to 10%, compared to the market's general expectation of 8.95%; earnings per share are expected to be between $15.20 and $15.50, compared to the market's general expectation of $15.34 per share. Increased customer trading volumes boost performance, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US) Q3 revenue and EPS exceed expectations. Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A reported third-quarter net revenue of $1.66 billion, up 21% from $1.365 billion in the same period last year, beating market expectations of $1.505 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, higher than $0.40 in the same period last year and the market's expectation of $0.54. Due to increased customer trading volumes, commission income increased by 23% year-on-year to $537 million for the quarter. Data shows that customer trading volumes for stocks and options increased by 67% and 27%, respectively, while customer trading volumes for futures decreased by 7%. Net interest income increased by 21% year-on-year to $967 million, driven by enhanced securities lending activities and increased customer average margin loans and credit balances. In addition, the board of Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share. Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) reveals AI "trump card": expects gross profit margin of 35% for $600 billion project, targets revenue of $225 billion in fiscal year 2030. Oracle Corporation announced the expected gross profit margin for its large-scale artificial intelligence infrastructure project, alleviating some concerns on Wall Street about the profitability of this key new business segment. At an investor presentation at its annual event in Las Vegas on Thursday, Oracle Corporation stated that for an artificial intelligence workload infrastructure project (such as data centers) generating a total of $600 billion in revenue over six years, the gross profit margin would reach 35%. The gross profit margin refers to the percentage of revenue that remains after subtracting the cost of goods and services. Co-CEO Clay Maguire stated in discussions with analysts that the gross profit margin level in this example is "referential even for the largest customers". Breaking the landscape of AI infrastructure with sky-high costs! Meta (META.US) completes nearly $30 billion data center financing, SPV off-balance sheet structure becomes a new model for tech giants. Meta, owned by Mark Zuckerberg, is set to finalize a nearly $30 billion financing package for its data center campus in rural Louisiana, marking the final step in the largest private capital transaction in history. According to sources, Blue Owl Capital and Meta will jointly own the "Hyperion" data center campus in Richland Parish, Louisiana, with the tech giant retaining only a 20% stake. To support the construction of the campus, Morgan Stanley has established a special purpose vehicle (SPV) that arranged over $27 billion in debt financing and approximately $2.5 billion in equity financing - this structure for large transactions is becoming increasingly common. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. September Building Permits MoM preliminary figures (%), U.S. September Import Price Index MoM (%), U.S. September Housing Starts Annualized Rate MoM (%). 21:15 Beijing time: U.S. September Industrial Production MoM (%). 01:00 Beijing time next day: U.S. total number of rigs as of October 17. 04:00 Beijing time next day: U.S. August Net Foreign Purchases of Long-Term Securities (billion USD). 00:15 Beijing time next day: FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Mursaleem delivers speech. 03:30 Beijing time next day: CFTC releases weekly positions report.