Performance Forecast No Surprises Jefferies Financial Group Inc. gives Total (TTE.US) a "hold" rating.

After TotalEnergies (TTE.US) announced its third-quarter earnings forecast, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. maintained a "hold" rating with a target price of 57 euros. The company's third-quarter performance is expected to be announced on October 30th. Although there are some positive signals in the trading update, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. believes that most of these are already reflected in the market consensus net revenue expectations. TotalEnergies' strong upstream production growth continues, but is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year growth of +4%, and the actual realized oil prices in the third quarter seem slightly lower. Liquefied natural gas prices are weaker than expected by Jefferies Financial Group Inc., and the planned shutdown maintenance of the Ichthys liquefied natural gas project will have a negative impact. European refining margins seem to be a bright spot, significantly exceeding consensus expectations and showing a quarter-on-quarter growth. The performance of the integrated gas business remains stable. Cash flow is the second relatively positive aspect, with net investments of $30 billion, $10 billion less than expected by Jefferies Financial Group Inc., plus operational working capital inflows, which will improve the "net debt ratio by 0.5% to 1% compared to the second quarter of 2025". Overall, TotalEnergies' business segment performance and cash flow are expected to grow by 0-5% year-on-year (consensus expectation is $4.73 billion, implying a year-on-year growth of +2%, with $4.64 billion in the third quarter of 2025). Net investments are around $30 billion (including a net inflow of $5 billion from asset disposals). Operational working capital inflows are around $10-20 billion. The net debt ratio is expected to improve by 0.5-1% quarter-on-quarter (from 17% in the second quarter).