Open Source Securities: The price of pork falls more than expected, and the ability to breed may accelerate.

Open Source Securities released a research report stating that, according to Yongyi Consultation, the national average sales price of live pigs in September 2025 was 13.10 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 4.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.90%. As pig prices continue to decline, losses in pig farming have intensified, with a planned increase in the slaughter of Yongyi samples in October, indicating that there is still some pressure on pig prices in the short term. At the current point in time, pig prices may stabilize after being oversold, with limited fluctuations expected in the short term. Policy changes, disease outbreaks, or unexpected declines in pig prices may accelerate the industry's destocking process. As of October 10, 2025, the price of 7kg piglets in large-scale farms had dropped to 183 yuan/head, a decrease of 110 yuan/head compared to the previous year. The entry into the winter season's piglet restocking period has caused the price of piglets to fall below the industry's average cost line of 300 yuan/head, leading to further destocking as both live pigs and piglets are experiencing double losses. Key points from Open Source Securities: - The price of pigs slaughtered in September fell, with pressure on pig enterprises' slaughter in October still present. - The proportion of large pigs slaughtered decreased compared to the previous month, indicating a potential tightening of supply. - Short-term surplus supply and weak demand have resulted in a decrease in the price difference between fresh and frozen pork, with frozen pork inventory levels already higher than the same period in 2024. - Profitability in pig farming turned to losses in September, with a 0.46% decrease in the industry's breeding stock compared to the previous month. In addition, data from 12 listed pig companies show a decrease in the average sales price of slaughtered pigs in September compared to the previous month. Risks include abnormal fluctuations in pig prices, uncertainties related to diseases, and companies' farming costs not decreasing as expected.