Minmetals Securities: Indonesia's crackdown on tin ore smuggling continues to tighten supply, long-term optimism on tin prices under the wave of AI.

Minmetals Securities released a research report stating that on September 29, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in the country and the complete sealing off of smuggling channels. According to SMM, this round of action mainly targets small and medium-sized private smelters that rely on illegal mines, making it difficult to quantify the actual impact on production. This may further exacerbate the global tin supply shortage. In addition, AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, directly driving an increase in tin demand. In the medium to long term, the increase in tin supply capacity is limited, and emerging fields such as AI and Siasun Robot & Automation are accelerating development, opening up demand space, combined with the steady growth of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for tin prices. Main points from Minmetals Securities: Indonesia's comprehensive crackdown on tin smuggling disrupts the global tin supply market On September 29, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in the country and the complete sealing off of smuggling channels. According to USGS, Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin ores and refined tin, with Indonesia's tin ore production expected to reach around 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of global tin ore production. Due to the closure of illegal smelters, Indonesia's refined tin production in 2024 is expected to decrease by 30.7% year on year, reaching 49,900 tons, the lowest level in over 20 years, accounting for 13.4% of global refined tin production. This round of crackdown mainly targets small and medium-sized private smelters that rely on illegal mines, making it difficult to quantify the actual impact on production, which may further exacerbate the global tin supply shortage. Indonesia's RKAB approval cycle returns to one year, Wa State's production recovery lower than expected According to SMM, on October 3, 2025, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a new regulation adjusting the approval system for RKAB back to an annual basis, effective from 2026. Previously, some mining licenses (IUP) with production quotas for 2026 obtained in 2024 and 2025 were declared invalid, and companies need to reapply for new annual RKABs. The Indonesian government continues to implement various policies to promote the compliance and efficiency of Indonesia's tin industry. The progress of tin mine resumption in Wa State, Myanmar, is also lower than expected. According to SMM, tin exports from Wa State, Myanmar, in August were only around 1,200 tons, and tin ore inventory in Yunnan is still below 30 days of TIAN AN. There is still a gap in overall ore supply. As of October 9, the processing fee for 40% tin ore has fallen to 12,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore has fallen to 8,000 yuan per ton, reaching the lowest level in nearly three years, putting continued pressure on tin smelting companies. AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, directly driving an increase in tin demand According to the calculation by Minmetals Securities, the NVL72GB300 server from NVIDIA consumes about 4.71kg of tin per unit, a significant increase compared to traditional servers. It is estimated that the annual average growth rate of tin consumption for global AI servers from 2025 to 2030 will reach 44.5%. By 2030, global tin consumption for AI servers is expected to reach 34,000 tons, based on ITA data estimating global tin demand to be 37.27 million tons in 2024. Therefore, the tin consumption for AI servers by 2030 may reach 9% of the current global tin demand, driving continuous growth in global tin demand. In the medium to long term, the increase in tin supply capacity is limited, and emerging fields such as AI, Siasun Robot & Automation are accelerating development, opening up demand space, combined with the steady growth of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, pointing to a positive long-term outlook for tin prices. Risk warning: Unexpectedly slow growth in demand for AI data centers; tin production in Myanmar and Indonesia exceeding expectations.