GF Securities: Civil aviation demand is stable and the restoration of international routes is accelerating.

GF SEC released a research report stating that according to Flight Master, during the summer peak travel season in 2025, the total number of civil aviation flights in the country reached 1.054 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Domestic flights increased by 2.0% and international flights increased by 13.2%. The passenger transport volume reached 147 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. During the National Day holiday, there were 2.432 billion cross-regional trips in the country, with approximately 19.17 million civil aviation passenger transports, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; the total number of flights was 135,000, an increase of 3.3%, a 15.1% increase compared to 2019. Overall, the peak travel seasons of summer and National Day continue to drive the recovery of aviation demand, benefiting from the visa-free policy, strong recovery of international routes, and outstanding flexibility of airports in East China and South China. GF SEC's main points are as follows: Major airports have good production recovery momentum, and passenger flow structure optimization steadily advancing From January to August 2025, the cumulative production data of major listed airports has steadily rebounded, with aircraft takeoffs and landings at Pudong Airport/Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport/Shenzhen Airport/Capital Airport increasing by 5.0%/7.0%/5.6%/2.3% year-on-year. In terms of passenger throughput, benefiting from airlines using price to exchange for volume and stable demand, the overall seat occupancy rates of major airlines have significantly improved year-on-year, coupled with a significant increase in international flights year-on-year. The passenger flow of major listed airports exceeded the increase in flight volume from January to August 2025. Peak seasons such as summer and National Day continue to drive the recovery of air travel, and airport operations continue to maintain high growth momentum According to Flight Master, during the summer peak travel season in 2025, the total number of civil aviation flights in the country reached 1.054 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with domestic flights increasing by 2.0% and international flights increasing by 13.2%. Among the major listed airports, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport saw the highest increase in flight volume at 8.0%, followed by Pudong/Hongqiao/Capital/Shenzhen Airport increasing by 2.7%/2.5%/1.8%/0.4% respectively. During the National Day holiday, there were 2.432 billion cross-regional trips in the country, with approximately 19.17 million civil aviation passenger transports, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%; the total number of flights was 135,000, an increase of 3.3%, a 15.1% increase compared to 2019. Overall, the peak travel seasons of summer and National Day continue to drive the recovery of aviation demand, benefiting from the visa-free policy and strong recovery of international routes, with airports in East China and South China showing outstanding flexibility. According to the Civil Aviation Administration's announcement on promoting the construction of international aviation hubs, under the guidance of "strengthening the comprehensive gateway compound function of international aviation hubs such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, and building a number of international aviation hubs oriented towards specific regions and regional aviation hubs", the expansion of flight rights and the improvement of transfer capacity, they are expected to maintain steady growth. There are significant differences in the time structure for the winter and spring flight seasons, with major airports continuing to recover while medium-sized airports facing capacity tightening In the 2025 winter and spring flight season, the total civil aviation flight time in the country decreased by 1.16% year-on-year and 3.16% month-on-month, showing a slight contraction in overall capacity. The million-level airports performed relatively steadily, with domestic and international flight times increasing by 6.18% and 7.07% year-on-year, respectively, indicating that core hub routes continue to concentrate at large airports. In comparison, medium-sized airport time resources have significantly tightened, reflecting trends in capacity optimization and structural adjustments. Overall, the international flight time at airports across the country increased by 1.38% year-on-year, reflecting the continuation of momentum in international route recovery. Among the listed airports, there was a slight tightening of domestic and international flight times at Baiyun and Shenzhen Airport; an increase in international flight time and a slight decrease in domestic flight time at Pudong and Hongqiao Airport; and a divergence pattern in time resources at Capital Airport, with a slight increase in domestic flight time but a tightening in international flight time, reflecting differences in regional route layout and recovery pace. Investment recommendation Air travel continues to recover, international route restoration accelerates, and industry sentiment steadily improves. Major airports have sufficient ground capacity, and with the promotion of "building international hub airports", the structure is expected to continue to improve, while profit elasticity gradually recovers. It is recommended to focus on Shenzhen Airport (000089.SZ) and Shanghai International Airport (600009.SH), which have a high proportion of international routes and the potential for transfer and regional passenger flow expansion. Risk warning International route recovery is slower than expected; macroeconomic fluctuations; cost fluctuations of oil prices, exchange rates, etc.; policy changes; slower-than-expected recovery progress of non-aviation businesses at airports, etc.