September production increase does not change the market outlook, OPEC maintains its unchanged crude oil demand forecast.

After the daily average oil production increased by more than 500,000 barrels in September, OPEC continues to maintain its unchanged outlook for the oil market. OPEC pointed out in its monthly market report released on Monday that the daily average global oil demand growth for this year is expected to be 1.3 million barrels, and for 2026 it is expected to be 1.4 million barrels, consistent with previous forecasts. The report cited third-party data showing that in September, OPEC+ increased its daily average oil production by 630,000 barrels. So far this year, OPEC has been accelerating the recovery of idle production capacity based on the current solid fundamentals of the oil market. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) holds a different view, considering that the oil market is approaching a state of oversupply - global oil prices have fallen by nearly 15% this year. It is worth noting that the OPEC+ alliance this month only agreed to restore 137,000 barrels per day of suspended production capacity, a significant slowdown compared to earlier this year. The report also shows that the expected demand for OPEC+ oil remains the same as the previous month's report: daily demand is expected to be 42.5 million barrels for this year, and is expected to increase to 43.1 million barrels per day by 2026. Here are some other key data revealed in the monthly report: - September's daily average oil production was about 43.05 million barrels. - OECD oil demand is expected to increase by about 130,000 barrels per day this year, with the Americas being the main source of growth. Non-OECD countries' oil demand is expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels per day. - Transport fuels will be the core driver of oil demand growth this year - aviation fuel/jet fuel demand is expected to increase by 380,000 barrels per day, while diesel demand is expected to increase by 300,000 barrels per day. - Non-OPEC countries' oil production is expected to increase by about 800,000 barrels per day this year, and by about 600,000 barrels per day by 2026, both data points consistent with the previous month's assessment. - Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina will be the main countries driving the growth in oil production. - OPEC+'s natural gas liquids and unconventional liquid production is expected to increase by 100,000 barrels per day this year compared to last year, reaching a daily average production of 8.6 million barrels. By 2026, the year-on-year increase is expected to be the same, with daily average production reaching 8.8 million barrels.