Canalys: Africa's smartphone market continues to grow, with a projected 3% increase by 2025.

In 2025, the African smartphone market has had a good start, with regional shipments achieving growth for the eighth consecutive quarter. The latest data from Canalys (now merged with Omdia) shows that in the first quarter of 2025, shipments increased by 6% year-on-year, reaching 19.4 million units. Despite the decrease in demand for entry-level devices in other regions, the African market has benefited from the active offline retail sector and manufacturers' renewed focus on broad market coverage. Policy adjustments in key markets, easing exchange rate fluctuations, and the introduction of new products targeting cost-effective users at the beginning of the year have further boosted market performance in this quarter. Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa drive growth in the African smartphone market In the first quarter of 2025, Egypt remains the largest smartphone market in North Africa, with shipments increasing by 34% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to the implementation of an IMEI whitelist system to combat the gray market, improved macroeconomic stability, and a renewed focus on local manufacturing. The Algerian smartphone market achieved a 16% growth, mainly benefiting from government policy support, telecom technological advancements, and increasing consumer demand. The launch of "DZ Mob Pay" in the first quarter, along with previous mobile payment initiatives, is accelerating digitalization. In the sub-Saharan African region, South Africa showed the most impressive performance, with a 14% increase. This growth is mainly due to a series of measures implemented by the government, including the removal of a 9% luxury tax on smartphones priced below 2500 South African Rand (approximately $137), and the gradual phasing out of 2G/3G networks to promote 4G and 5G adoption. In contrast, the Nigerian market was impacted by continued economic pressure, shrinking by 7% year-on-year as consumer demand shifted towards essential goods. However, the country's large, young, and tech-savvy population still has long-term growth potential. Kenya achieved a modest 1% growth, which, despite being limited, indicates positive market prospects due to the steady promotion of flexible financing models. Samsung and Xiaomi regain market momentum, while Transsion's growth slows down Manish Pravinkumar, Chief Analyst at Canalys (now merged with Omdia), said, "After seven consecutive quarters of growth, Transsion's shipments declined by 5% in the first quarter of 2025. Competitors are starting to replicate Transsion's three-tier distribution model, consisting of national distributors, regional wholesalers, and micro-retailers providing credit, promotions, and localized after-sales services. This model had helped Transsion achieve broad market penetration, but now competitors are winning over young consumers with more stylish designs, stronger configurations, and bolder marketing strategies. Samsung had a strong performance in South Africa and Egypt, holding a 21% market share. While continuing to focus on high-end devices, models like the A-series such as A06 and A16 make up 60% of its total shipments, showcasing its appeal in the mass market. Xiaomi (01810) achieved a 32% growth, mainly due to its strong performance in Egypt and Nigeria, along with robust sales of Redmi 14C and A-series products. OPPO saw a 17% year-on-year growth through local assembly pilot projects and comprehensive promotions around the A and Reno series. Honor achieved an astonishing 283% growth, benefiting from its high-end Magic series products and 5G bundled sales partnerships with MTN and Vodacom, significantly boosting demand and brand awareness in key markets. Addressing a complex situation: African smartphone market faces subtle challenges in 2025 Pravinkumar stated, "The African smartphone market still has development potential in 2025, but ongoing economic challenges are dampening growth momentum. While manufacturers and telecom operators are actively investing in long-term digital development, they face many difficulties in the short term. Consumers in multiple African countries are still affected by rising living costs and bureaucratic inefficiencies, which will inhibit or delay crucial investment plans. However, the market still shows some resilience. 4G devices accounted for 85% of shipments in the first quarter of 2025, with the mid-range price segment (from $100 to $199) representing 42%. This reflects limited consumer purchasing power, restricting demand for high-spec devices. The market's reliance on financing cooperation models, such as OnPhone Mobile and LOOP in Kenya, and EasyBuy in Nigeria, has increased the convenience of device acquisition but also raised concerns about consumer debt sustainability." Canalys (now merged with Omdia) predicts that due to factors such as slow infrastructure development, rising sovereign debt, and macroeconomic instability, the African smartphone market is expected to achieve a modest 3% growth in 2025. The tensions in trade between China and the US will impact consumer confidence in major economies, leading to repercussions in emerging markets. With tightening investment flows, fragile African markets will face higher volatility risks. Although the deployment of 4G and early-stage 5G brings hope, these developments require significant financial investment. The digital aspirations of urban youth, representing strong potential demand, are hindered by limited disposable income and increasing reliance on financing, which continue to constrain overall market stability.