National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: In April 2025, the month-on-month CPI turned from a decline to an increase, with the core CPI increase remaining stable.

On May 10, Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the CPI and PPI data for April 2025. In April, the month-on-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from a 0.4% decrease last month to a 0.1% increase, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month, and decreased by 2.7% year-on-year. Despite some downward pressure on prices in certain industries due to international input factors, China's economic foundation is stable and resilient, with various macroeconomic policies working in synergy to promote high-quality development, leading to positive changes in prices in certain areas. In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month after a 0.4% decrease the previous month, decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, with the decrease being the same as the previous month. The core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, and by 0.5% year-on-year, maintaining a stable increase. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, the same as the previous month, and by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decrease expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Although international input factors have influenced prices in some industries, China's strong economic foundation and coordinated macroeconomic policies have led to a solid advancement in high-quality development, resulting in positive changes in prices in some areas. Overall, the CPI rose month-on-month from a decrease to a slight increase, with a stable increase in the core CPI. The rise in CPI was higher than the seasonal level by 0.2 percentage points, primarily driven by the increase in food and transportation service prices. Food prices rose by 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding the seasonal level by 1.4 percentage points. Factors such as a decrease in imports led to a 3.9% increase in beef prices. Due to the marine fishing ban in some areas, prices of marine fish rose by 2.6%. The initial supply shortage of new fruits led to a 4.7% and 2.2% increase in potato and fresh fruit prices, respectively. Fresh vegetables and pork prices decreased by 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively, with decreases smaller than the seasonal level. Due to increased demand and holiday factors, prices for transportation services increased significantly. Airfare, transportation rental fees, hotel accommodation, and tourism prices rose by 13.5%, 7.3%, 4.5%, and 3.1% respectively, all exceeding the seasonal level, contributing to a 0.10 percentage point increase in CPI month-on-month. Due to changes in international gold prices, domestic gold jewelry prices increased by 10.1%, leading to a 0.06 percentage point increase in CPI month-on-month. Looking at the year-on-year comparison, CPI slightly decreased, mainly affected by the downward trend in international oil prices. Energy prices decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, expanding by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. Gasoline prices decreased by 10.4%, contributing to a 0.38 percentage point decrease in CPI year-on-year, being the main factor driving the decline. Food prices decreased by 0.2%, with a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, resulting in a 0.03 percentage point decrease in CPI. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI increased by 0.5%, maintaining a stable increase. Within services, prices increased by 0.3%, the same as the previous month. Household services, elderly care services, and education services increased by 2.5%, 1.4%, and 1.2% respectively, with overall stable increases. Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices increased by 0.4%, contributing to a 0.10 percentage point increase in CPI year-on-year. Gold jewelry prices increased by 35.8%, with a slightly larger increase compared to the previous month, while prices for clothing and communication tools increased by 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, remaining relatively stable. Prices for fuel-powered and new energy vehicles decreased by 4.6% and 3.4% respectively, with decreases narrowing. The month-on-month decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI) was the same as the previous month, with some industrial sector prices showing a stable upward trend. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, primarily due to the impact of international input factors on the prices of related industries in China. Changes in the international trade environment led to a rapid decline in prices of some international commodities, which affected the prices of related industries in China. For instance, the international downward trend in crude oil prices affected the prices of petroleum-related industries in China, with prices in oil and gas extraction decreasing by 3.1%, refined petroleum product manufacturing by 2.5%, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical product manufacturing by 0.6%. The international downward trend in prices of aluminum, zinc, copper, and other non-ferrous metals affected the prices of aluminum smelting, zinc smelting, and copper smelting in China, resulting in decreases of 2.4%, 1.6%, and 0.8% respectively. Prices in some export industries decreased month-on-month, with prices in the automobile manufacturing sector decreasing by 0.5%, and prices in computer communication, other electronic equipment manufacturing, furniture manufacturing, and metal product manufacturing all decreasing by 0.2%. Collectively, the impact of these 10 industries led to a 0.24 percentage point decrease in PPI month-on-month. Secondly, some domestic energy prices decreased seasonally. With the end of heating season in the northern region, coal demand entered the traditional off-season, leading to a 3.3% decrease in prices for coal mining and processing. New energy electricity production costs are low, accompanied by increased wind power output, resulting in a 0.3% decrease in prices for electricity and heat production and supply. Collectively, these three industries led to a 0.10 percentage point decrease in PPI month-on-month. China has continued to implement macroeconomic policies to boost consumption and promote the expansion of high-tech industries, resulting in increased demand in some industries and positive changes in prices in certain areas. Firstly, there has been some improvement in the supply-demand relationship in certain industries, leading to a narrowing of price declines. Steady progress in infrastructure construction across the country, along with good execution of peak production periods in the cement industry, has led to narrowing declines in the mining and processing of black metals and non-metallic mineral products compared to the previous month by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. Policies promoting consumption and equipment upgrades continue to produce positive effects, leading to increased demand for consumer goods and manufacturing equipment, driving prices upward in related industries. The year-on-year decline in prices for household washing machines decreased by 0.3%, and food manufacturing and new energy passenger car prices decreased by 0.2%. Prices for electrical machinery and special equipment manufacturing decreased by 0.7% and the prices for special machinery manufacturing for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fisheries and metal processing machinery manufacturing decreased by 0.2%. Secondly, the development of high-tech industries has led to rising prices in related industries. The continuous growth of new productive forces through technology innovation and industrial developments.Innovation in-depth integration, the development of industries such as intelligent manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing has driven the prices of related industries to rise year-on-year. The manufacturing prices of wearable smart devices rose by 3.0%, aircraft manufacturing by 1.3%, micro special motor and component manufacturing by 1.2%, servers by 1.0%, and ship and related equipment manufacturing by 0.8%. In addition, China continues to promote trade diversification, market expansion driving some export industries to rise year-on-year or narrow their decline. The prices of integrated circuit packaging and testing series rose by 2.7%, semiconductor device special equipment manufacturing by 1.0%; tractor manufacturing, electronic device manufacturing, and textile clothing and apparel industry prices narrowed by 1.2, 0.7, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month.This article is selected from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, edited by GMTEight: Zhang Jinliang.