Aluminum prices frequently hit new highs for the year, with aluminum prices expected to fluctuate at high levels from November to December.

On November 13th, the domestic futures market saw Shanghai aluminum prices rise again, with the main contract 2601 reaching a new high for the year at 21,000 yuan/ton. "Recently, aluminum prices have been fluctuating with a bias towards strength. Since the strong rally at the end of October, they have repeatedly hit new highs for the year. Behind this trend is the concentrated release of macro bullish factors such as the consensus reached in China-US tariff consultations, the expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve, easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the fundamental support of limited external shipments of aluminum ingots from Northwest China during the heating season and reduced deliveries to East China, as well as the enhanced financial attributes of aluminum prices in the context of loose liquidity," said Liu Yunyan, an analyst at ZhuoChuang Information specializing in the aluminum market. Looking ahead, from November to December, aluminum prices are expected to show a high-level oscillation pattern with "downward support and upward resistance." At the macro level, factors such as changes in export demand during the China-US tariff window in November, ongoing supply disruptions overseas, a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, and low inventory levels will work together to maintain high aluminum prices. However, as demand in the downstream market gradually transitions to the off-season in the fourth quarter, leading to a shrinkage in end demand and a gradual decline in the operating rates of downstream processing companies, this will have a drag on aluminum prices.