Parallel pattern is coming: Sodium battery cost expected to catch up with lithium battery this year. Material shortages may affect production.

After several years of market cultivation, the scale delivery of sodium batteries is on the agenda. Following the announcement of the production schedule by Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ) and the signing of a large contract with Beijing HyperStrong Technology, Wang Yifei, Dean of the Forward-looking Technology Research Institute of Gotion High-tech (002074.SZ), recently told a reporter from Caixin at the 2026 Global Technology Conference that the company expects to achieve mass production of sodium batteries in the fourth quarter of 2026. In addition to the production plans of leading companies, Caixin reporters noticed at the 18th SHENZHEN INT'L Battery Technology Exchange/Exhibition (CIBF2026) held this month that almost all leading battery companies showcased the latest sodium battery and material products, claiming to have the necessary conditions for mass production. This indicates that the sodium battery industry has completely bid farewell to laboratory research and sample verification and is about to enter the stage of large-scale implementation. Through multiple interviews, Caixin reporters learned that some companies have reduced the manufacturing cost of sodium battery cells from 0.35-0.45 yuan/Wh in the first quarter of this year to 0.3 yuan/Wh. Optimistic industry insiders predict that the cost of sodium batteries will equal that of lithium batteries within the year. However, material shortages will pose challenges to the industry's scale-up, and upstream material companies are currently accelerating capacity expansion. Wang Yifei believes that from the perspective of the overall industry benefits, the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries will effectively stabilize the price fluctuations of lithium carbonate, alleviate the cost pressure of the entire industry chain of raw materials, and sodium-lithium compatibility will establish a balanced new energy power system with photovoltaic energy, becoming the most secure mainstream development model for the future new energy industry. Progress: Leading companies have initiated preparations for mass production In 2026, the industrialization of sodium batteries is gaining momentum. At the CIBF2026 exhibition, Caixin reporters found that sodium batteries have become a star product that almost all leading battery manufacturers must showcase. The overall scale of the CIBF2026 exhibition area reached 280,000 square meters, spanning 14 theme professional exhibition halls. Products exhibited covered core raw materials upstream of batteries such as positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, separators, various specifications of battery cells in the midstream, and various application scenarios downstream such as energy storage, new energy vehicles, two-wheeled vehicles, and special equipment. Among the battery manufacturers, including Contemporary Amperex Technology, BYD Company Limited (002594.SZ), Sunwoda Electronic, Zhongke Haina, and Guangzhou Great Power Energy and Technology, many leading battery manufacturers showcased their latest sodium battery technology and products at the core area of the exhibition. In terms of performance parameters, the sodium battery products released and exhibited by leading battery manufacturers have an energy density ranging from 160Wh/kg to 180Wh/kg, which is comparable to the mainstream lithium iron phosphate batteries in high-end passenger vehicles that can reach around 190Wh/kg, narrowing the energy density gap between the two. Sunwoda Electronic staff introduced at the exhibition that under 1P charge-discharge rate conditions, their sodium battery products have a cycle life of over 20,000 cycles; in the automotive field, their sodium battery products are mainly for new energy vehicles in cold regions, with usable energy at -40C exceeding 80%, and an energy density of 180Wh/kg. The person in charge of Zhongke Haina told Caixin reporters that with continuous technological iteration, the energy density of the company's new generation positive electrode materials has significantly increased, closing the gap with lithium iron phosphate batteries to less than 10%. Gotion High-tech recently released sodium battery products that achieved a significant increase in energy density through a non-negative electrode design, with a storage version single-cell capacity of 180Ah and an energy density of 162Wh/kg for the power version. As for Contemporary Amperex Technology, the second-generation sodium-ion batteries of the company have an energy density of 175Wh/kg, approaching the level of lithium iron phosphate, with a cycle life exceeding 10,000 cycles, and an energy retention rate of up to 90% in extreme cold environments at -40C. In addition to performance parameters, the industry challenges that have hindered production are being overcome by leading companies. For example, Contemporary Amperex Technology publicly stated that the company has successfully overcome the four major industry challenges of sodium-ion battery production and is expected to start production in the fourth quarter. Gotion High-tech announced that they have successfully overcome several safety challenges such as sodium dendrite deposition and thermal runaway, and have created a safe protection system by optimizing the electrolyte formula, allowing the sodium battery to pass safety tests smoothly. Gotion High-tech informed Caixin reporters that their sodium battery products have met the conditions for mass production, and the company has already started preparations for mass production with delivery expected in the fourth quarter of this year. Cost: Industry insiders optimistically predict that sodium batteries can catch up with lithium batteries by the end of the year Since 2026, with the continuous increase in lithium prices, the cost advantages of sodium batteries are becoming increasingly evident. On May 22, SMM reported that the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 177,500 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 174,500 yuan/ton. According to industry experts, when the price of lithium carbonate exceeds 120,000 yuan/ton, there is market space for sodium batteries. Public data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, the cost of sodium battery cells has been reduced to 0.35-0.40 yuan/Wh, with the price difference with lithium iron phosphate batteries narrowing to within 0.1 yuan/Wh. According to institution forecasts, by 2030, the cost of sodium cells will decrease to 0.25 yuan/Wh. Caixin reporters learned that leading companies have already achieved a cost level of 0.35 yuan/Wh, with the cost of sodium battery cells on some production lines further reduced to around 0.3 yuan/Wh, mostly from an optimized solution of polyionic pathways + hard carbon anode + aluminum foil current collector, but this has not yet become a common industry standard. The cost of lithium iron phosphate battery cells is currently around 0.30-0.35 yuan/Wh. "In the second half of the year, several sodium cell production lines with a capacity of tens of thousands of tons will be put into operation, and the cost of sodium cells will catch up with lithium cells. The overall popularization is expected to occur in the second half of next year to the following year," Wang Yifei told Caixin reporters. However, more optimistic industry views believe that sodium batteries can catch up with lithium batteries within the year. Gan Lin, Vice President of Zoneng Energy, told Caixin reporters that when the price of lithium carbonate stabilizes above 150,000 yuan/ton, sodium batteries can be on par with lithium batteries. The current price has already reached this turning point, and it is expected that sodium and lithium batteries will be on par in 2026. A sodium battery company executive told Caixin reporters that compared to lithium iron phosphate and lead-acid batteries, sodium batteries have significant advantages in manufacturing costs, low-temperature performance, safety performance, and rate performance. With mature technology, the manufacturing cost of sodium sodium-polyanion batteries can be reduced to 0.2-0.3 yuan/Wh, with the core advantage being the abundant sodium resources and the ability to further reduce overall costs through current collector savings, resulting in more price stability. The manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 0.25-0.35 yuan/Wh and is more susceptible to fluctuations in upstream lithium carbonate prices. It is understood that in the cost composition of sodium batteries, raw materials account for about 30%-40%, with the rest being manufacturing, depreciation, yield, and other factors. It is widely believed within the industry that "scaling up + domestic material production" is the key to lowering the cost of sodium batteries below 0.30 yuan/Wh. Scenarios: After energy storage power stations, there may be a "blossoming" in multiple areas In terms of usage scenarios, it is an industry consensus that energy storage scenarios will be the first to see large-scale adoption. Qian Zhenhua, President of FarPowers Energy Storage Battery Cells, told Caixin reporters that sodium batteries will first achieve large-scale applications in AIDC and high-temperature and extreme cold areas. The core advantage of sodium batteries is high rate and high safety, capable of achieving 6P discharge, making it an ideal choice for AIDC energy storage batteries after GPU upgrades. With capacity ramp-up and maturation of the industrial chain, sodium batteries are expected to take a differentiated growth path in the energy storage field, working synergistically with lithium batteries. Currently, energy storage applications in AIDC are mainly divided into three scenarios: outside the wall (external to the park), medium-voltage side (35kV), and board-end (chip power supply end). In the energy storage field, in April of this year, Contemporary Amperex Technology announced a strategic cooperation agreement on sodium-ion energy storage batteries with Beijing HyperStrong Technology, reaching a 3-year 60GWh sodium-ion battery order cooperation. Caixin reporters found that several demonstration projects of sodium-ion energy storage power stations have been completed in China. Among them, the first hundred-megawatt-hour-level sodium-ion battery energy storage power station in ChinaNanning Fulin Sodium-ion Battery Energy Storage Power Station Phase II expansion project was officially put into operation in October last year; in January this year, an integrated test on the phase I completion of the Hubei Honghu 100MW/200MWh sodium-ion energy storage power station demonstration project, constructed by Power Construction Corporation of China, Ltd, was completed. Outside of energy storage, industry insiders generally believe that after the large-scale adoption of sodium batteries in the energy storage field, there is a high probability of a "blossoming" situation where sodium batteries will be used in multiple areas. "The future will be a situation where sodium and lithium batteries coexist. What lithium batteries can do, sodium batteries can also do." Currently, the strategic layout of leading companies is mostly diversified. In late April, the Chief Technology Officer of Contemporary Amperex Technology publicly stated that their sodium batteries have passed the validation phase, achieving a range of 300 kilometers in extended-range vehicles and 500 kilometers in pure electric vehicle models. By the end of this year to the first half of next year, Contemporary Amperex Technology plans to be the first to deploy their sodium batteries in passenger vehicle swap systems. Wang Yifei also told Caixin reporters that apart from energy storage, Gotion High-tech's sodium batteries will gradually expand into new energy vehicles, special equipment, and other diverse fields in the future to build a comprehensive sodium battery application ecosystem that covers energy storage, low altitude, light-duty power, and other scenarios. The person in charge of Zhongke Haina said that the industry generally predicts that sodium-ion batteries will enter a phase of large-scale commercial applications in 2026, and the company has already completed application pilot layouts in multiple segmented fields. Upstream: Insufficient supply may restrict the scaling of sodium batteries With the increasing uncertainty of overseas lithium supply, the establishment of an industrial pattern where lithium and sodium coexist will be further solidified, and downstream scenarios such as energy storage, civil power, data centers, etc., which demand sodium batteries, will release a concentrated demand, further highlighting the shortcomings in the upstream raw material supply of sodium batteries. A material company representative told Caixin reporters that a leading central enterprise has released a 12GWh sodium battery energy storage demand and has approached several companies, but has missed orders due to insufficient capacity. Wang Yifei believes that the current layout of the sodium battery industry's production capacity is slow and lacks mature production lines with capacities of tens of thousands of tons, with most materials only able to maintain a production capacity of thousands of tons, leading to high sodium battery costs compared to lithium batteries. Although the company has solved technical difficulties such as high residual alkali content in materials, water content in electrodes, and gas production at the anode, achieving a yield comparable to that of lithium batteries, inadequate capacity still hinders the release of scale reduction benefits. Cao Yuliang, Chairman of Janan Energy, believes that current battery end demand is growing rapidly, but critical upstream raw materials for sodium batteries have not formed a mature and scaled supply system, with a clear gap. Even with existing tens of thousands of tons of production lines operating at full capacity, they cannot meet the purchasing needs of downstream leading companies. Currently, listed material companies are accelerating research and development and scale layout. Among them, global electrolyte leader Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology, sodium fluoride, Do-Fluoride New Materials, a manufacturer of positive electrode materials Guizhou Zhenhua E-chem Inc., Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology, Guizhou Redstar Developing, among others, can supply essential materials for sodium batteries. Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology's 6000-ton NFPP pilot line in Xiantao has entered the product debugging stage, and a new production line with a capacity of tens of thousands of tons is being planned to be established. Beijing Easpring Material Technology is currently focusing on the layout of layered oxide and polyanion materials for sodium batteries, with products already in mass verification stage. BTR, the global leader in hard carbon anodes, is a core supplier for major battery manufacturers. Ningbo Shanshan, with a focus on hard carbon anode materials, has achieved mass production applications in sodium batteries, lithium batteries (including semi-solid batteries), and supercapacitors. Shenzhen Capchem Technology has the technical reserves for sodium-ion battery electrolytes and related core raw materials and has delivered total products to the level of thousands of tons. Caixin reporters noted that in addition to battery leaders preparing materials as part of multiple technology routes, non-listed companies within the industry are also increasing their research and development and capacity layouts. The person in charge of Zhongke Haina stated that the company has completed the construction of a ten-thousand-ton positive electrode material production line and completed the construction of a six-thousand-ton hard carbon anode production line, with the capacity to deliver in large quantities, "Currently, orders and inquiries have significantly increased over last year, and the company plans to expand positive and negative electrode material production capacity to tens of thousands of tons in the next 3-5 years." Representatives from Zoneng Energy told Caixin reporters that the company has built synchronous pilot production lines for battery cells, with the ability to quickly validate and iterate on technologies. By collaborating with mature battery manufacturers to promote GWh-level mass production of sodium battery cells, the yield steadily increases, and costs continue to decline. The company's global first one-ten-thousand-ton sulfuric iron sodium positive electrode base was put into operation in January 2026, currently "the company's order book is full, and the one-ten-thousand-ton positive electrode material production capacity has been secured, with double the inquiries for battery cells and two-wheeled vehicles." For Jana Energy, its composite phosphate iron sodium has been certified by leading downstream battery manufacturers, holding nearly a 70% market share by 2025, with corresponding patents for electrode materials and systems needed for high-energy sodium batteries already in place. A company representative told Caixin that they will provide materials and technology for positive electrode materials, negative electrode coatings, and electrolytes based on rapid iteration in downstream sectors. The company plans to expand its phosphate-based polyanion positive electrode material production capacity from tens of thousands of tons to hundreds of thousands of tons in the next 3-5 years to match downstream demand. This article was originally published by "Caixin" and edited by GMTEight: Jiang Yuanhua.