Industrial: Since the "anti-inner circle" movement, which resources have increased in price?
With the steady progress of "anti-vacant" and the tightening of supply expectations, coupled with the marginal improvement in demand during the peak season of high temperature, the Nanhua commodity index has continued to rise since July.
Industrial released a research report stating that with the steady progress of the "anti-inner-leveling" initiative, expectations of tightening supply are increasing. Coupled with marginal improvements in demand during the high-temperature peak season, the Nanhua Commodity Index has been continuously rising since July, increasing by over 7.5% from the low point at the end of May. Furthermore, seasonally, as resource commodities enter traditional high-demand peak seasons such as high-temperature electricity consumption, "Golden September and Silver October", "Singles' Day", and "Double Twelve", the second half of the year is traditionally a period of rising resource commodity prices.
In terms of specific categories, since July, the futures prices of resource commodities that have seen the most significant increase are concentrated in new energy industry chains, black metals, non-ferrous metals, building materials, chemicals, and crude oil. In many of these categories, spot prices have also substantially increased, with some even surpassing the futures prices.
The main points are as follows:
1. The focus on "anti-inner-leveling" by policies continues to increase, with substantive actions being taken to combat "inner-level competition" in various industries. Following the top-level orientation set at the Central Financial and Economic Committee meeting in early July to "govern low-price competition in enterprises according to the law and regulations", various industry departments have actively responded. Measures to combat "inner-level competition" from the bottom up are steadily progressing, with industries such as photovoltaics, cement, steel, and coking coal already starting to take substantive actions such as production cuts, price increases, or issuing corresponding advocacy documents to reshape market order and promote high-quality industry development. On July 18th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that "the work plans for stabilizing growth in ten major industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are about to be released, focusing on restructuring, optimizing supply, and eliminating outdated production capacity," further intensifying expectations for the "anti-inner-leveling" policy.
2. The commodity market continues to reflect strong expectations of "anti-inner-leveling", with the Nanhua Commodity Index rising by over 7.5% from the low point since July. As expectations of tightening supply increase with the steady progress of the "anti-inner-leveling" initiative, coupled with marginal improvements in demand during the high-temperature peak season, the Nanhua Commodity Index has been continuously rising since July, surpassing 7.5% from the low point at the end of May. Additionally, looking at the seasonal aspect, with resource commodities continuously experiencing high-temperature electricity consumption and traditional peak demand seasons like "Golden September and Silver October", "Singles' Day", and "Double Twelve", the second half of the year is traditionally a period of rising resource commodity prices.
3. In terms of specific categories, since July, the futures prices of resource commodities that have seen significant increases are concentrated in new energy industry chains (polysilicon, lithium carbonate), black metals (coking coal, coke, iron ore, rebar, etc.), non-ferrous metals (industrial silicon, silver, alumina), building materials (glass), chemicals (rubber, caustic soda, pulp), and crude oil. In many of these categories, spot prices have also substantially increased, with some even surpassing futures prices, including new energy (polysilicon), black metals (coking coal, stainless steel, wire rod), non-ferrous metals (industrial silicon), chemicals (rubber, caustic soda), etc.
Risk Warning: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice or research opinions.
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