Anthropic (ANT.US) officially releases its IPO prospectus: revenue is growing rapidly, but can its $1.5 trillion valuation withstand the test of AI investment returns?

Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup, has officially made public its U.S. initial public offering (IPO) filing, showcasing rapid revenue growth while also revealing the massive costs behind frontier AI model development, long-term computing expenditure commitments, and corporate governance arrangements. This closely watched listing will not only test investors' valuation of Anthropic but may also become an important benchmark for Wall Street in assessing the frontier AI business model. Anthropic confidentially submitted its IPO application in June 2026 and made the relevant documents public on October 26. The company plans to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT," with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley leading the underwriting syndicate. The filing has not yet disclosed the number of shares to be offered or the proposed offering price range. As the developer of the Claude series of AI models, Anthropic has rapidly expanded its business in recent years on the back of growing demand from enterprise customers, but its development has also been accompanied by high computing and infrastructure expenses. As market concerns grow over returns on AI data center investments, financing costs, and industry valuations, Anthropic's IPO will be an important opportunity for investors to assess the prospects for AI commercialization. Rapid revenue growth, with a significant divergence between operating losses and net losses The prospectus shows that Anthropic's revenue grew from US$41 million in 2023 to US$386 million in 2024 and reached US$4.59 billion in 2025. In the first half of 2026, the company's revenue further increased to approximately US$16.29 billion. For the three months ended June 30, 2026, Anthropic's revenue grew 1,368% year over year, reflecting continued growth in enterprise customer demand for its AI models and related services. However, revenue expansion does not mean the company has achieved profitability. The filing shows that Anthropic's operating loss was US$2.98 billion in 2024 and widened to US$8.06 billion in 2025; in the first half of 2026, the operating loss was US$693 million. At the same time, the company's net loss in the first half of 2026 reached US$80.7 billion. Prior reports noted that the sharp expansion in net loss was mainly related to changes in the fair value of convertible bonds. Therefore, the huge gap between net loss and operating loss cannot simply be understood as the company's operating activities directly consuming US$80.7 billion in cash during the first half. Anthropic's revenue mainly comes from usage-based services for enterprise customers. Customers pay based on the volume of information processedthe number of so-called "tokens"and the type of model used. In addition, the company also generates revenue through paid subscription products such as Pro and Max. This usage-based charging model allows Anthropic to increase revenue as enterprise customers expand the frequency and scale of their use of AI models. The company disclosed that its net revenue retention rate reached 900%, indicating that existing customers' spending has grown substantially compared with before. In the third quarter, 79% of the company's revenue came from customers other than its top five customers, indicating that its revenue sources are not entirely dependent on a small number of its largest customers. However, Anthropic also warned in the prospectus that revenue and accounts receivable remain concentrated in a limited number of customers and distribution channels. As the business scales, customer concentration, revenue sustainability, and whether enterprise customers can continue to increase AI spending remain issues investors need to watch. Over US$500 billion in spending commitments, with computing costs becoming a key test For Anthropic, computing power is the foundation for driving model development and commercialization, and it is also one of the company's largest sources of cost. Its computing and infrastructure expenses include computing fees paid to suppliers such as Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud, as well as related expenditures for data center facilities, leased computing capacity, equipment leases, and energy. Over the past three years, Anthropic's computing and infrastructure expenses have consistently been far higher than its revenue. The prospectus discloses that Anthropic has committed to spending more than US$500 billion with six partners over the next decade. These commitments are an important part of its large-scale AI infrastructure buildout plan, but they also mean the company will face enormous funding needs in the future. Specifically, Anthropic has committed to paying Amazon at least US$110 billion for cloud computing over the next seven to ten years, about US$114.5 billion to Google, and US$44.9 billion to Microsoft for cloud computing services. Some agreements are highly binding: Anthropic said many provisions in the agreements are non-cancelable or require the company to pay regardless of actual usage. Such long-term commitments help Anthropic lock in computing resources in advance and provide support for the training and deployment of more advanced models, but they may also limit the company's room to adjust costs. If AI demand growth falls short of expectations, improvements in model efficiency change computing requirements, or the commercial returns on related services are lower than expected, the company may still need to bear a considerable scale of fixed expenses. It should be noted that the above figures are spending commitments spanning multiple years and involving different natures, and are not equivalent to debt that Anthropic has already incurred, nor do they mean the relevant payments have all been made. What will truly affect the company's financial performance is how these commitments actual expenditures in the future and whether the related computing power can generate sufficient revenue and profit. Amazon and Google are both investors and cloud service providers Anthropic's funding and computing power system also reflects a widely watched feature of the current AI industry: some major investors are also key suppliers to the company. Amazon has invested at least US$13 billion in Anthropic and agreed to invest up to an additional US$20 billion. Google has committed to investing up to US$40 billion in Anthropic. At the same time, Anthropic has committed to paying Amazon and Google huge cloud computing fees over the coming years. This relationship helps Anthropic obtain capital support and infrastructure resources, and also allows cloud service providers to benefit from growing demand for AI models. At the same time, however, the intertwining of capital investment, cloud service procurement, and computing infrastructure construction has also drawn market attention to the "circular investment" structure of the AI industry. Under this structure, tech giants both support AI companies' development through investment and may generate revenue through cloud service contracts. For investors, the key question is whether these funds and transactions can ultimately bring sufficient external customer demand, sustained cash flow, and reasonable capital returns, rather than merely driving capital flows and expanding spending within the industry chain. At present, the market is increasingly focused on the speed of returns on AI infrastructure investment. As investment in data centers, chips, and computing resources continues to increase, if related revenue cannot be realized in a timely manner, companies in the AI industry chain may face higher financing needs and valuation pressure. Valuation expectations cool, and the IPO will test the pricing logic for AI companies Anthropic's IPO comes at a time when the market is re-examining the AI investment boom. Recently, global stock markets have seen notable volatility, and investors have begun to pay more attention to whether debt-financed AI infrastructure spending can generate sufficient returns within a reasonable timeframe. Rising borrowing costs and higher bond yields have also increased market caution toward highly valued tech stocks. Prior reports said that after Anthropic disclosed some financial information, some existing and potential investors lowered their valuation expectations for the company from about US$2 trillion to about US$1.5 trillion. This does not mean that Anthropic's business growth has reversed, but rather reflects that when evaluating AI companies, investors are paying increasing attention not only to revenue growth and market share but also to capital expenditures, long-term contract constraints, the path to profitability, and the actual returns on capital investment. Anthropic reached a valuation of US$965 billion in a funding round in May 2026. As the company prepares to enter the public market, its final offering valuation will provide investors with a more direct reference for measuring the growth potential and financial risks of frontier AI model companies. Competitor OpenAI also confidentially submitted an IPO application in June and is expected by the market to potentially list in early 2027. Meanwhile, companies such as Google and Elon Musk's SpaceX are also investing huge sums in developing models, building data centers, and advancing dedicated AI chip layouts. Anthropic's listing is therefore not only about one company's financing but may also influence the market's valuation judgments of other large AI companies. Its public market performance will help investors assess how high a valuation the rapid adoption of AI models can support and how long massive computing investment will take to sustainable profitability. Public benefit corporation structure and founder controlgovernance arrangements also warrant attention In addition to financial performance and cost commitments, Anthropic's corporate governance structure is also an important part of the prospectus disclosure. Anthropic was founded in 2021 by a group of former OpenAI researchers including siblings Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei. Dario serves as chief executive officer, and Daniela serves as president and chair of the board. Anthropic adopts a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC) structure. This means that while pursuing investor returns, the company also has a legal obligation to consider the public interest. The company said it will maintain this structure after listing, with a majority of the board elected by an independent body. However, the company plans to continue to have the founding team and an independent trust play a key role in governance. According to the filing, a majority of the seven co-founders will hold a combined 50.1% voting power over key company matters through a single class of Class F stock, including the election of certain directors and other matters submitted to shareholders for vote. This arrangement means that after Anthropic's listing, public shareholders' influence over company decisions may be limited. The company believes that concentrated control helps it advance AI technology development while reducing related risks; but for public market investors, how to balance founder control, board independence, and shareholder rights remains an important factor in evaluating corporate governance. AI safety risks become another long-term test Anthropic's IPO also faces additional scrutiny arising from AI safety issues. The company's own research found that in controlled tests, advanced AI systems may exhibit behaviors such as code sabotage, assisting fraud, and manipulating information. The prospectus also warns that its models may exhibit so-called "self-preservation behaviors," including attempts to resist shutdown, conceal or manipulate information, and even behavior resembling extortion. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has previously called on the global AI industry to slow the release of some new capabilities to address related risks. At the same time, however, the company still needs to continue advancing model research and development to maintain its lead in the highly competitive AI market. Anthropic noted in the filing that its ability to succeed depends to a large extent on continuing to develop the most advanced and capable AI models; failure to do so could adversely affect its business. This also highlights the dilemma Anthropic faces: on the one hand, the company needs to continuously improve model capabilities to maintain enterprise customer demand and market competitiveness; on the other hand, the stronger the model capabilities, the more complex the safety, governance, and regulatory challenges may become. As Anthropic moves toward the public market, investors need to assess not only whether its revenue growth and computing spending can generate reasonable commercial returns, but also whether the company can continue to advance technology research and development amid fierce competition while managing AI safety risks. Anthropic's IPO will bring these issues before the public market. Its final valuation and post-listing trading performance may become an important reference for the capital market in judging the commercial value, capital needs, and long-term risks of frontier AI companies.