Morgan Stanley: Robotaxi contributes $120 per share to Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) target price; Roadster highlights potential technology synergies with SpaceX

Morgan Stanley said in a research report released on October 16 that Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)'s new-generation Roadster sports car demonstrates impressive engineering and technical strength. Its rocket version can accelerate from a standstill to 60 miles per hour (about 96.6 kilometers per hour) in less than 0.59 seconds, has a top speed of more than 230 miles per hour (about 370 kilometers per hour), and can even briefly lift off the ground with the help of a propulsion system developed by SpaceX. Morgan Stanley believes that although the Roadster's contribution to Tesla, Inc.'s sales and earnings per share in the short term may be minimal, the model fully demonstrates Tesla, Inc.'s technological innovation capabilities and the potential for technology synergies between it and SpaceX. According to the research report, the new Roadster is equipped with a series of technologies that break through traditional automotive design, including a fan suction system capable of generating strong downforce, ultraviolet and low-temperature protection technology, an electrostatic dissipation system, and cold gas thrusters developed by SpaceX. Among them, the downforce generated by the fan suction system is theoretically enough to keep the vehicle attached even when inverted, while the cold gas thrusters can not only provide forward and upward thrust, but also assist the vehicle in lateral rotational movement, giving the Roadster a certain lift-off capability. Tesla, Inc. plans to begin production of the new Roadster in 2028. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the practical value of a sports car capable of lifting off in real road environments remains limited, but the significance of the Roadster does not lie in short-term sales, but in demonstrating Tesla, Inc.'s ability to push the boundaries of physics, engineering, and innovation. The bank believes that the Roadster is more like a flagship product showcasing Tesla, Inc.'s engineering strength, and whether it succeeds commercially remains to be seen, but the technology integration between Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX is already very evident. At the same time, Morgan Stanley is more positive on Tesla, Inc.'s upcoming third-quarter results, mainly because execution in the Robotaxi business and the core automotive business is improving, providing stronger support for the company's long-term growth prospects. On the robotaxi business side, Tesla, Inc. recently accelerated the expansion of its Cybercab fleet in Austin, Texas. The research report noted that in just 30 days, the relevant fleet grew eightfold to more than 300 vehicles, with cumulative unsupervised driving mileage exceeding 1 million miles (about 1.61 million kilometers). Morgan Stanley believes that this progress marks an important step by Tesla, Inc. toward commercial-scale Robotaxi operations. As the fleet expands and actual operating mileage increases, the market will be able to more clearly assess the commercial application capability of Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving technology. The core automotive business is also showing signs of improvement. Morgan Stanley pointed out that Tesla, Inc.'s vehicle deliveries have exceeded expectations for two consecutive quarters, driven jointly by rising gasoline prices and increased adoption of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature. However, the bank also cautioned that Tesla, Inc. still faces challenges such as high capital expenditure, short-term cash burn, and elevated valuation, which may limit its stock price from significantly outperforming the market in the short term. Nevertheless, Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla, Inc.'s actual execution progress in Robotaxi and the automotive business is gradually catching up with some of the long-term development goals it previously set out, making its investment outlook more attractive ahead of the third-quarter earnings report. On valuation, Morgan Stanley maintained a "Hold" rating on Tesla, Inc. with a target price of $400. Based on the closing price of $362.44 on October 15, this target price implies potential upside of about 10.4%. It is worth noting that Morgan Stanley's valuation of Tesla, Inc. is no longer limited to the traditional automobile manufacturing business, but covers multiple areas including autonomous driving networks, mobility services, energy, and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. Within the $400 target price, the core automotive business contributes $44 per share, the network services business contributes $145, the autonomous driving mobility services business contributes $120, the energy business contributes $35, and the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation business contributes $56. Among them, network services is the business segment with the largest valuation contribution. Morgan Stanley's long-term forecast assumes that by 2040, user adoption of Tesla, Inc.'s related network services will reach 80%, with average revenue per user of $240 per month. For the autonomous driving mobility services business, the bank's valuation model assumes that by 2040, Tesla, Inc.'s mobility network will have about 5 million vehicles, with average revenue of about $1.33 per mile. In the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation business, Morgan Stanley assigns a valuation of $56 per share and applies a 50% success probability discount in the calculation, reflecting that although the business has long-term growth potential, its commercialization prospects still carry considerable uncertainty. On earnings forecasts, Morgan Stanley listed consensus market expectations showing that Tesla, Inc.'s earnings per share for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are $1.73, $2.00, and $2.56, respectively. Morgan Stanley emphasized that upside catalysts for Tesla, Inc.'s future stock price include further increases in FSD adoption, progress in unsupervised autonomous driving, expansion of Robotaxi operations, and breakthroughs in new products such as the Roadster and Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation. At the same time, competitive pressure from traditional automakers, Chinese competitors, and large technology companies, execution risks in the Robotaxi, FSD, and humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation businesses, as well as regulatory, valuation, and potential equity dilution issues, remain the main risks investors need to watch.