JP Morgan tracks Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) supply situation: iPhone 18 Pro series demand is strong, delivery lead times are rapidly extending.

JP Morgan released a research report stating that in the second week of its tracking of Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) product supply, delivery lead times extended further, with the iPhone 18 Pro series increasing by an average of 4 days. Compared with the first week, the delivery lead time for the iPhone 18 Pro increased by 16 days (last year, the iPhone 17 Pro delivery lead time increased by 9 days from the first week to the second week), while the delivery lead time for the iPhone 18 Pro Max increased by 11 days (in the same period last year, the iPhone 17 Pro Max delivery lead time increased by 7 days from the first week to the second week). The larger extension compared with the same period last year has narrowed the delivery lead time gap the bank saw in the first week. Currently, the delivery lead times for both Pro models in the United States and Europe are basically flat compared with the iPhone 17 series in the same period last year, while China remains the only region below last year's level, although the gap is narrowing. Although this means that the current demand pace for the Pro series over the past few days has exceeded the previous generation's product cycle, because iPhone Duo pre-orders did not open until October 16, the key data point to watch next will be the extent to which delivery lead times slow after entering the third week. After that, feedback from the supply chain on production plan adjustments (usually appearing around November) will become a clearer signal for judging demand, including whether consumers will further upgrade to purchase Pro models priced at $1,199 and above. iPhone Global Tracker: Delivery lead times for both models extended further from midweek and are now flat versus the same period last year Across the regions tracked by JP Morgan, the home delivery times for the iPhone 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max in the second week averaged 23 days and 30 days, respectively (19 days and 26 days at midweek, and 7 days and 19 days in the first week). By comparison, a year earlier in the second week, the home delivery times for the iPhone 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max across the regions tracked by the bank averaged 24 days and 31 days, respectively; two years earlier in the same period, the home delivery times for the iPhone 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max averaged 23 days and 29 days, respectively. U.S. Market Tracker: Delivery lead times extended from midweek, with both models flat versus the same period last year In the United States, the delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reached 21 days and 28 days, respectively (17 days and 24 days at midweek, and 2 days and 22 days in the first week), exactly the same as the 21-day and 28-day delivery lead times for the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max in the second week of the same period last year. In terms of in-store availability, all iPhone 18 Pro versions tracked by JP Morgan were available for in-store pickup on September 19; some Pro Max versions (Silver and Black) were available for in-store pickup on September 19, while the Burgundy and Glacier versions were not available for in-store pickup. It should be noted that the United States accounts for about 34% of iPhone shipments. China Market Tracker: Delivery lead times for both models extended but remain below last year's level; Pro Max unavailable for in-store pickup In China, the delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reached 27 days and 33 days, respectively (25 days and 29 days at midweek, and 13 days and 21 days in the first week), compared with 30 days and 37 days for the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max in the second week of the same period last year. Although the delivery lead time gap for the Pro models compared with the same period last year has narrowed (currently 3 days, versus 7 days at midweek), China remains the only region where delivery lead times are below last year's level. In terms of in-store availability, some iPhone 18 Pro versions (Burgundy and Black) were available for in-store pickup on September 19, while the Pro Max was not available for in-store pickup. It should be noted that China accounts for about 19% of iPhone shipments. Europe Market Tracker: Similar to other regions, delivery lead times extended from midweek; Germany flat versus last year, UK differs by only 1 day Similar to other regions, delivery lead times in Europe extended further from midweek, with Germany flat versus the same period last year and the UK differing by only 1 day. In Germany, the delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reached 22 days and 29 days, respectively (18 days and 25 days at midweek, and 5 days and 16 days in the first week), flat versus 22 days and 29 days in the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, in the UK, the delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max reached 21 days and 28 days, respectively (17 days and 24 days at midweek, and 9 days and 19 days in the first week), compared with 22 days and 29 days in the same period a year earlier. In terms of in-store availability, in Germany, some iPhone 18 Pro versions (Glacier and Black) were available for in-store pickup on September 19; in the UK, all versions of the iPhone 18 Pro except Burgundy were available for in-store pickup on September 19; while in both markets, the Pro Max was not available for in-store pickup. It should be noted that Germany and the UK account for about 3% and 4% of iPhone shipments, respectively.