After joining the Stock Connect, the share price fell nearly 30% in 7 days. What can support the subsequent share price of LONGBIO-B (01779)?

Title context: After joining the Stock Connect, the share price fell nearly 30% in 7 days. What can support the subsequent share price of LONGBIO-B (01779)? Text: After being included in the Stock Connect list on September 7, the share price of LONGBIO-B (01779) entered a clear downward trend. On September 7, the company's share price closed down 10.31%. Although it rebounded 6.01% the next day, it then entered a "five-day losing streak," with the share price falling 27.65% cumulatively over seven trading days. After this sharp decline, LONGBIO also recently staged a recovery. It was observed that from September 16 to 18, LONGBIO's share price saw a short-term low-level rebound of "three consecutive gains," and whether this can become the starting point of a subsequent reversal has undoubtedly become the focus of investors both on and off the market. After joining Stock Connect, why has southbound capital failed to support the share price? Judging from LONGBIO's recent share price trend, the "Stock Connect inclusion day" is undoubtedly a key node. On September 7, the Stock Connect list officially took effect, with 54 stocks newly included in this round of adjustment and 15 removed. Judging from the first-day market performance, inclusion in the list did not bring a broad rally. Of the 54 newly added constituent stocks, only 12 closed higher, while the other 42 decliners averaged a drop of 6.62%, with LONGBIO performing slightly worse than the average. However, this also shows to a certain extent that LONGBIO's post-inclusion decline was not an isolated move in its own stock, but was disturbed by overall market sentiment. From a trading logic perspective, most investors clearly regarded the "inclusion day" as a point for realizing good news rather than a new share price catalyst. In fact, among the 54 "Stock Connect inclusion" stocks this time, 44 recorded positive returns year-to-date, with an average year-to-date gain of 101.85%. Although LONGBIO, as a recently listed stock, does not yet have complete annual share price gain data, before its official inclusion took effect on September 7, its share price had already risen from HK$105.2 at the close on August 19 to HK$128.0 at the close on September 4, a gain of 21.67% over that period. In addition, LONGBIO's share price showed a clear volume-backed upward move in intraday trading on August 27, and its turnover further expanded to HK$35.265 million on September 4. Behind the phased rise in both volume and price, this shows that before LONGBIO's "Stock Connect inclusion" officially took effect, the market had already priced in expectations around the positive news of "BLA acceptance + pipeline delivery" from its previous financial report, as well as the improvement in stock liquidity after inclusion. On September 7, the long bearish candlestick with heavy volume in LONGBIO's trading was precisely a reflection of the concentrated realization of funds from prior trades based on Stock Connect + BLA expectations. But in fact, the core of LONGBIO's share price trend from September 7 to 15 was not the single-day plunge on September 7, but rather that after its failed rebound on September 8, it failed to form a second upward attack and instead moved lower step by step. From the perspective of trading volume, after the previous day's heavy turnover of HK$161 million, LONGBIO still had turnover of HK$97.79 million on September 8; but afterward, as the company's share price continued to probe lower, its market turnover continued to decline, with turnover down to only HK$10.53 million by September 15, forming a typical "shrinking-volume decline." This also indirectly shows that during this period, low-level buying in LONGBIO was not sufficiently proactive. Although LONGBIO had successfully joined Stock Connect by then, the newly entered southbound capital was not enough, whether in terms of purchase scale, timing, or method, to counter LONGBIO's selling pressure in the market at that time. Data showed that on September 7, southbound net buying of LONGBIO was about HK$108 million, accounting for about 67% of total turnover that day, but LONGBIO's share price still fell 10.31% that day. This shows that southbound capital did not support LONGBIO's price that day, and also indirectly reflects stronger selling pressure in the market. Excluding the two trading days of "pulsed turnover" on September 7 and 8, LONGBIO's southbound net buying from September 9 to September 15 was about HK$67.48 million, while its stock turnover during the same period was about HK$131 million, with southbound net buying accounting for about 51.6% of the period's turnover; LONGBIO's corresponding southbound shareholding market value rose from about HK$98.56 million on September 9 to about HK$160 million on September 15, an increase of about HK$61 million. During this period, southbound capital's share of LONGBIO's tradable shares rose from 1.15% to 2.30%, but the company's share price simultaneously hit new lows. This may also indicate that southbound capital at this time had not yet formed trend-following buying that "becomes more proactive in adding positions as the price falls," but was more low-level allocation-type absorption. For LONGBIO, an 18A company, although such buying can slow the pace of decline in the short term, it is still not enough to reverse the bearish trend. After oversold repair, when will the next upward phase begin? From a market perspective, after seven consecutive trading days of sharp decline, LONGBIO's share price finally staged a three-day rebound. From September 16 to 18, LONGBIO's share price rose 7.80% over that period, with turnover on September 18 expanding to HK$16.8 million and turnover rate rising to 0.22%, making the signal of low-level capital replenishment increasingly obvious. However, looking over a longer time frame, LONGBIO's share price is still in a repair stage after the sharp decline and has not yet started a new main upward phase. In terms of technical performance, first, from the moving averages, although the company's share price has now climbed above the 5-day and 10-day lines, it is still below the 60-day and 20-day lines; second, the narrowing of the MACD green bars indicates weakening downward momentum, but the corresponding DIF and DEA remain below the zero axis, and the medium-term bearish structure has not reversed; finally, RSI has returned to around 46 and has not yet touched the strong zone, while the September 18 close of HK$105 is still in the weak repair zone in the lower half of the BOLL band, without forming a strong upper-band breakout structure. Combined with volume, on September 18, LONGBIO's market trading volume was 163,400 shares, not only higher than the previous day's performance, but also higher than its average daily trading volume of 109,400 shares over the past five days. This may indicate that the day was not simply a volume-less rebound, but a low-level replenishment move with incremental capital participation. But even so, LONGBIO's trading volume on September 18 was still far below the 1.2877 million shares on September 7 and 817,800 shares on September 8. In other words, LONGBIO's current rebound volume can only be regarded as "repair level," not yet "reversal level." On a short-term basis, an important catalyst expected to drive LONGBIO's share price from repair to reversal may lie in the BLA review progress of its core product LP-003 mentioned in its interim report. It is understood that on August 20 this year, the CDE website showed that the marketing application for LP-003 injection independently developed by LONGBIO was officially accepted, with the proposed indication being seasonal allergic rhinitis (SAR). This is also LONGBIO's first Class 1 innovative biologic drug sprinting toward commercialization. As an anti-IgE antibody with a novel sequence design, LP-003 mainly blocks the binding of free IgE in blood and tissues to the high-affinity receptor FcRI through high-affinity binding, cutting off the IgE-mediated allergic cascade at the source. Its Phase II head-to-head data in CSU being superior to omalizumab further strengthens the logic that LP-003 has differentiated potential. From a market perspective, allergic rhinitis is a non-infectious chronic inflammation of the nasal mucosa, and the patient base in China has exceeded 246 million. Although intranasal glucocorticoids and second-generation antihistamines are first-line standard treatments, about 60% of moderate-to-severe patients still face the dilemma of poor efficacy, so there is huge unmet clinical demand. If approved smoothly, LP-003 will become the world's first marketed innovative anti-IgE antibody drug in more than 20 years since the approval of omalizumab, directly tapping into China's huge allergy disease treatment market. Recent institutional views have also emphasized that LP-003 has BIC potential and stated that the company's revenue elasticity after 2027 will come from LP-003 commercialization. At the secondary market level, once LP-003 is confirmed to be approved and launched, transforming from a clinical asset into a commercialized asset, it is expected to directly drive LONGBIO's valuation switch from "zero revenue and unprofitable" to "commercialization validation," thereby accelerating the improvement in its short-term market structure and volume-price performance.