Northbound funds | Northbound trading recorded a net buy of 881 million. Large model concept stocks and tech internet stocks showed significant divergence. Z.AI (02513) received another HK$700 million in additional positions.

On September 15 in the Hong Kong stock market, northbound trading recorded a net buy of HK$881 million. Among this, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) recorded a net buy of HK$804 million, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) recorded a net buy of HK$76 million. The stocks with the largest net buys by northbound funds were Z.AI (02513), TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800), and YOFC (06869). The stocks with the largest net sells by northbound funds were Tencent (00700), Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor (01347), and BABA-W (09988). Active stocks via Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) Active stocks via Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) Large model concept stocks and tech internet stocks showed significant divergence. Z.AI (02513) and MINIMAX-W (00100) received net buys of HK$717 million and HK$30.36 million, respectively. BABA-W (09988) and Tencent (00700) suffered net sells of HK$414 million and HK$1 billion, respectively. Founder pointed out that foundation models still possess platform value, but not all model companies can become platforms; in the Chinese market, key focuses include the real TCO of domestic accelerators, the structure of overseas Token usage, the pace at which APIs replace private deployments, and the feasibility of extending Coding/Agent into platform capabilities, while for tech giants, key observations include compute utilization corresponding to AI capital expenditures, revenue growth, and CKH HOLDINGS free cash flow returns. TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800) received a net buy of HK$574 million. Huatai pointed out that if the Federal Reserve delivers, market pricing of bearish factors may land, potentially leading to a short-term recovery. However, if the Federal Reserve hesitates again, relative to the already fully priced-in rate hike expectations, not hiking would instead be a surprise, potentially further raising uncertainty, pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields higher, and challenging credibility. CNOOC (00883) received a net buy of HK$137 million. Currently, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal, and Middle East crude oil exports are significantly restricted; risks to Red Sea shipping, Saudi energy facilities, and oil tanker security continue to rise. Global inventories of refined products such as diesel are low, and refineries are unlikely to quickly ramp up processing capacity in the short term. Nanhua Futures energy and chemicals analyst Ling Chuanhui pointed out that oil prices still face upward tail risks for some time to come. XIAOMI-W (01810) received a net buy of HK$194 million. CLSA released a research report stating that Xiaomi Pengcheng locked in 10,000 orders within four minutes of its debut, with expectations that Xiaomi will deliver about 90,000 vehicles in 2026; the company also simultaneously launched the Xiaomi 18 Fold and Xiaomi Pad 9 Pro Max, further advancing into the ultra-high-end market, prioritizing increases in average selling price and gross margin over shipment volume. With the launch of new flagship products, the bank believes Xiaomi's revenue and profit should bottom in the third quarter of 2026 and begin to rebound in the fourth quarter. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981) and Hua Hong Grace Semiconductor (01347) suffered net sells of HK$92.07 million and HK$478 million, respectively. UBS released a report stating that global semiconductor sales in July this year retreated from the record high of the previous month, with memory chip sales showing a particularly notable decline. UBS, citing data from the Semiconductor Industry Association, said global chip sales fell 9.8% month-on-month in July. Among this, memory chip sales fell 16.3% month-on-month. CHINAGOLDINTL (02099) suffered a net sell of HK$322 million. UBS believes that even if the Federal Reserve hikes rates in September, gold prices may fall in the short term due to the impact of real interest rates and dollar movements, but the decline is expected to be limited, and the overall recovery trend may not necessarily be disrupted. Seasonal physical demand should improve, and institutional and official-sector investors looking to establish strategic positions may become more active at lower prices. In addition, YOFC (06869) and KINGBOARD HLDG (00148) received net buys of HK$194 million and HK$2.68 million, respectively, while KB LAMINATES (01888) suffered a net sell of HK$165 million.