After rising 18% during the year, has the Nasdaq's upward momentum come to a halt? Predictions on the platform are evenly split between long and short positions, with only a 27% chance of breaking through 33,000 points before the end of the year.

Noticed that the Nasdaq 100 Index has risen by about 18% in 2026, but trading participants on the market platform Kalshi predict that the index will not rise much further in the second half of 2026. Speculators believe that the probability of the technology-heavy index closing above 30,000 points in 2026 is about fifty-fifty, a level that the index first crossed in late May. As of Tuesday's intraday trading, the index is only about 1% below the 30,000-point mark. On Kalshi, contracts require speculators to make "yes" or "no" trades, supporting or opposing whether the Nasdaq 100 Index will end the year within a specific range of points. The contract will settle based on the price of the index provided by Google on December 31st. The significant surge of the Nasdaq 100 Index in 2026 occurred after the U.S. stock market hit a low point triggered by the US-Iran war on March 30. From then until June 2, driven by growing confidence in AI trading, the index consisting of the 100 largest non-financial stocks on Nasdaq soared by over 33%. Confidence waning However, traders now seem to believe that this bull market has lost momentum. Another contract shows a 40% probability that the Nasdaq 100 Index's highest point in 2026 will end above 32,000 points. The intraday high point so far this year is 30,762 points, reached on June 3. Trading participants believe there is only about a 27% probability that the Nasdaq 100 Index will climb above 33,000 points before the end of the year. In a report released by UBS on Tuesday, it is expected that the broader market rally will continue in the second half of 2026, with technology stocks possibly no longer leading the way. This could weigh on the Nasdaq 100 Index, heavily concentrated in tech stocks, which just welcomed SpaceX as its latest member on Tuesday. Ulrich Hoffman-Buchadi, Chief Investment Officer for UBS Americas, wrote, "Following a strong rally in semiconductor stocks in the second quarter of this year, investors are increasingly looking beyond the technology sector as they reevaluate the next phase of AI trading. While we remain confident in the growth story of AI...we also emphasize that the next phase of market rally may be marked by the expansion of market leadership."