Silent period is over! Wall Street's major banks collectively sing praises for SpaceX (SPCX.US) with Morgan Stanley setting a target price of $300.
Wall Street's big banks have started covering Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company SpaceX (SPCX.US), and have reached a clear consensus: buy the stock.
As the IPO quiet period for SpaceX (SPCX.US) comes to an end, major Wall Street banks are beginning to cover Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company, and have reached a clear consensus: buy the stock.
Major Wall Street banks collectively bullish, market concerns remain
At least six Wall Street institutions, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., and UBS Group AG, have initiated coverage on SpaceX with a rating equivalent to "buy," expressing optimism for its long-term growth prospects. While the company's market debut was hugely successful, there are still many doubts in the market regarding its profitability, project execution capability, and valuation.
Multiple Wall Street institutions bullish on SpaceX
Analysts' ratings are crucial as they provide investors with a valuation analysis framework, shifting the market's view of SpaceX from being solely a high-risk space project led by Musk. This week, the quiet period for the underwriters of SpaceX's $86 billion IPO, including Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp, Citigroup, and JPMorgan Chase, has ended. Additionally, 18 other banks participated in the IPO.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analyst Eric Sheridan initiated coverage on SpaceX with a "buy" rating and set a price target of $205. The report stated that SpaceX is well prepared to scale up its differentiation advantages in the space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence areas - "each of which could represent tens of trillions of dollars worth of opportunities over the next five years or more."
The report added, "Overall, we see SpaceX as a unique company with diversified growth opportunities across all three of its operating segments."
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas and team wrote in a report on July 7th, "SpaceX is able to massively convert energy into intelligence and can profitably lead the next generation of artificial intelligence...this is the ultimate frontier for humanity." The firm gave a target price of $300, which is among the highest target prices on Wall Street and represents a potential 87% increase from the stock's Monday closing price of $160.42.
The Morgan Stanley team also projects that SpaceX's stock price could reach $75 in a bearish scenario and $600 in an optimistic scenario. The firm also expects SpaceX's revenue to reach $319 billion by 2030 and surpass $3.3 trillion by 2040.
In comparison, SpaceX's revenue in 2025 is projected to be only $18.7 billion, while Microsoft Corporation's revenue reaches $281.7 billion, and Amazon.com, Inc. is close to $717 billion. According to early estimates from analysts at institutions that did not participate in the IPO, SpaceX's revenue in 2026 is estimated to be around $36 billion, and the company is not yet profitable.
The significant gap between current financial data and future performance expectations has sparked a debate among analysts about SpaceX's fair value.
Industry research analyst George Ferguson and his team wrote in a research report on June 30, "According to our model, although revenue and profit in the next five years are expected to increase significantly, SpaceX's valuation is still relatively high. Even if sales increase nearly 9 times and EBITDA increase 17 times by 2030, the model shows that its valuation will still exceed the valuation levels of profit giants such as Microsoft Corporation, Meta, Alphabet Inc. Class C, and Amazon.com, Inc. in 2026."
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder bluntly stated, "SpaceX is an outstanding company, but if the valuation already excessively includes future success, even outstanding companies may become unattractive investments." The analyst gave SpaceX a "sell" rating, with a 12-month target price of only $115, below the $135 offering price.
Two major positives, option traders bet on SpaceX stock price rise
After completing the largest IPO in history, SpaceX's stock experienced a "roller coaster" ride. SpaceX landed on the Nasdaq on June 12th, rising 19% on its first day of trading, with a cumulative surge of 49% in the first three days of trading, reaching a market value of $2.65 trillion, surpassing Amazon.com, Inc. to become the world's fifth-largest listed company. However, the momentum has since reversed. As of Monday's closing, SpaceX closed at $160.42, with a market value of approximately $2.1 trillion.
It is worth noting that the end of the analyst quiet period coincides with SpaceX being included in the Nasdaq 100 index. Reportedly, SpaceX will be officially included in the Nasdaq 100 index before the US market opens on July 7 (Tuesday), just 15 days after landing on the Nasdaq on June 12. This sets the record for the fastest inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index since its establishment.
According to JPMorgan estimates, the inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 alone will attract approximately $4.3 billion in passive funds to buy SpaceX stock. When factoring in the simultaneous inclusion in the MSCI and FTSE Russell global index systems, the total size of passive funds forced to buy SpaceX within 15 trading days can reach around $35 billion.
Reportedly, a large number of bullish positions were opened in weekly options expiring on July 10, with the highest concentration of call options at strike prices of $180 and $190, reaching 24,117 contracts and 23,432 contracts respectively. This indicates that under the dual positive effects of being included in the Nasdaq 100 and the end of the analyst quiet period, traders anticipate a potential increase of 11% and 17% in the stock price compared to last Thursday's closing price. In contrast, there is a significant lack of bearish hedging positions, indicating an overwhelmingly optimistic market sentiment.
In pre-market trading on Tuesday, as of writing, SpaceX was down 1.38% at $158.207.
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